Is child abuse getting worse?

What do the figures tell us?

Who could fail to be horrified by the murders of Arthur Labinjo-Hughes and Star Hobson by those who were supposed to care for them? But, I ask myself - as I prepare to speak at the Battle of Ideas debate: From grooming gangs to child abuse: is social work working? - how often does this kind of thing happen? And is it getting any worse?

A good place to start is serious incident notifications. These are reported by local authorities to the Child Safeguarding Practice Review Panel, and record incidents involving the death or serious harm of children in the care system or where abuse or neglect are known or suspected to have taken place. There were 442 such notifications in 2021/22 (down 94 on 2020/21, and down 56 on 2018/19). Of these, 191 involved the death of a child (down 32 on 202/21, and 36 on 2018/19); and 227 resulted in serious harm (down 57 on 2020/21 and 9 on 2018/19).

In other words, the worst, most serious instances of abuse or neglect, were notably more frequent in 2020/21 - when the pandemic, and lockdown, began. Despite the opening up of society since then, in the view of the Child Safeguarding Practice Review Panel: ‘the COVID-19 outbreak continues to present a situational risk for vulnerable children and families, with the potential to exacerbate pre-existing safeguarding risks and bring about new ones.’

Nevertheless, over the period covered by these figures, the upward trajectory was confined to that year. Things haven’t got worse. If anything, over the last three years at least, the picture is an improving one.

But what about other children, those that don’t necessarily feature in these horrible figures but nevertheless are being neglected or abused, may be at risk of coming to harm, or are otherwise ‘known’ to social services? These are described as children in need of help or protection because of risks to their development or health; including children in the care system, young carers and children with disabilities.

In 2021, there were 388,490 children in need, or 321 per 10,000 children. That is the lowest since 2013. There were 50,010 children on child protection plans. That’s 3% down on the previous year and the lowest since 2015. However, these figures are likely to be misleading. The number of child in need referrals, at 597,760, was a fall of 7% on the previous year. This was accounted for largely by school closures. As they were seeing far fewer children in class over the period, they weren’t picking up on as many concerns about what might be going on at home. In 2020/21 referrals from schools fell by 36,000 or nearly a third.

Nevertheless, according to research commissioned by the Department of Education,

… there were increases in all forms of children’s social care activity between 2013 and 2018 (except adoptions), [but] they have all plateaued or decreased since 2018, except looked-after children and … children in need assessments.

So, if we look a little wider than serious incidents, it’s a mixed and unclear picture.

The number of children looked after (or in the care system) in England was 80,850 last year, or 67 per 10,000 children. This has barely changed from last year though the numbers have been rising over recent years. According to the research, rising numbers are a consequence of a 12% fall, since 2016, in children leaving the care system. Fewer children, worryingly, are returning to their families; and fewer children are leaving care before they reach the age of 18.

And again, lockdown has impacted. Adoptions were 18% down on 2020. This was likely due to the impact on court proceedings. As a consequence these children will have remained in care. There was also a 20% fall in the numbers of unaccompanied asylum seeking children entering the system, as borders were closed around the world.

The encouraging headline figures are likely to be misleading. And the uptick in serious incidents suggests that the unprecedented actions taken in 2020/21 at least contributed to some children coming to harm (or worse), who might otherwise have been protected. But putting aside the - hopefully - one-off effect of lockdown on social care activity, the answer to the question I asked myself is still ‘no’. The kinds of serious incidents that result in death or serious harm to children are not on the increase. The serious impact of pandemic policy aside, there is little to suggest that things are getting worse overall.

This is important, especially now, as there’s a danger that our collective sense of horror at these particularly awful and upsetting events can become generalised in the popular imagination. The notion that we live in a society characterised by abusive relationships, or one where all manner of terrible things are happening ‘behind closed doors’, has a certain currency. It is also ripe for abuse itself as a pretext for interventions in family life we wouldn’t otherwise accept.

So it’s good that the figures - despite all their problems - don’t support this pessimistic narrative. Interestingly, the research commissioned by the DfE found that the most common concern picked up by social workers was not the abuse or neglect of children by their parents. Rather, it was concerns about domestic violence by children towards their parents.

But that’s for another post …